Drought Threatens South Africa's Wheat Harvest as 8% Lower Yield Looms

South Africa's wheat harvest is under threat due to a lack of rain in the Swartland area, which produces about 20% of the country's wheat. The region has received 79% less rainfall during the winter months between June and August compared to the 10-year average, according to GrainSA.

The farmers' group warned that some farmers estimate 25-30% of their crop potential may already have been lost due to reduced planting and unfavorable weather conditions. The government's Crop Estimates Committee forecast a 8% lower wheat harvest at 1.76 million metric tons for 2026, with the Western Cape province expected to harvest 11% less wheat compared to 2025.

GrainSA has called on the government to provide support and introduce affordable crop insurance to cushion farmers from climate-related risks. GrainSA CEO Tobias Doyer said that when a producer fails, South Africa loses not only the individual business but also production capacity, employment, skills, infrastructure, and ultimately its food-security resilience.