EIA Boosts Brent Price Outlook Amid Strait of Hormuz Shipping Constraints

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has increased its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2026 to $87 per barrel, citing constraints on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that are affecting oil production.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA stated that it had raised its estimates of Middle East shut-in crude oil production for the coming months compared with its July forecast. The agency assumed severe constraints on Strait of Hormuz transits will persist through August.

The EIA estimated that 4.9 million barrels per day were shipped through the Strait of Hormuz in the second quarter of 2026, down from an average of 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025.