EIA Forecasts Brent Crude Prices to Average $85 Per Barrel in Q3
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices, expecting them to average $85 per barrel in Q3. This is an increase of $11 from its previous estimate of $74 per barrel. The EIA attributes this revision to the ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have forced production shutdowns and drained global inventories.
According to the EIA, around 4.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil passed through the Strait in Q2, down from 21.6 million bpd before the conflict. The agency expects this disruption to persist through August, with some production restarting in September. However, it forecasts a smaller disruption of roughly 600,000 bpd to remain through the end of 2027.
The EIA's revised forecast has significant implications for global oil markets and inflationary pressures. Brent crude prices have been trading above $90 per barrel, with the latest rise following renewed attacks on vessels and lower shipments through Hormuz. The agency expects a sustained recovery in vessel traffic to support a decline in oil prices as more production returns and inventory losses slow.