EIA Forecasts Oil Market Crunch in 2026, Surplus in 2027
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest short-term energy outlook (STEO), predicting an oil market crunch in 2026 and a surplus in 2027.
According to the EIA's August STEO, world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption will outweigh production by 1.91 million barrels per day in 2026, while demand is expected to hit 104.96 million barrels per day next year and production will come in at 109.74 million barrels per day.
The EIA forecasts that the oil market crunch will occur in 3Q26, with a deficit of 3.83 million barrels per day, before swinging to a surplus of 4.59 million barrels per day in 2Q27 and 5.82 million barrels per day in 4Q27.
The EIA also expects most shut-in oil production in the Middle East to be restored by early 2027, but notes that ongoing disruptions will continue through the end of next year, amounting to about 0.6 million barrels per day.