EIA Forecasts Oil Output Return and Global Gas Peak
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short Term Energy Outlook for August 2026, which provides a detailed forecast of global energy production and consumption. According to the report, world oil output is expected to return to nearly normal levels by the first quarter of 2027, with only 1.7 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of Middle East shut-ins. However, this assumption is seen as overly optimistic.
The report also notes a significant difference between the futures market and STEO oil price forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), with the latter being more conservative in its estimates. Additionally, the EIA forecasts a stock build in 2027, which is considered unrealistic by some analysts.
When it comes to natural gas, the report suggests that world production minus US shale gas output will peak in 2028, based on a Hubbert Linearization analysis using data from 1998 to 2025. This estimate is about 11% higher than the previous scenario, and suggests a near-term peak for global natural gas production.