EIA Raises Oil Price Forecasts Amid Middle East Supply Drop

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its oil price forecasts for this year and next, citing rapidly falling global stockpiles due to lost Middle Eastern supply from the ongoing Iran conflict.

Global oil inventories have declined by 400 million barrels so far in 2026 and will continue falling through year-end, according to the EIA. Middle East crude oil production shut-ins increased to 6.7 million barrels per day in August from 5 million barrels per day in July.

The agency expects Brent crude prices to average $91 per barrel this year, marking a nearly 5% increase from its previous forecast for 2026. Oil prices are projected to average $84.65 per barrel this year, also up nearly 5% from the prior estimate.