EIA Sees Brent Crude at $85 in Q3, Then a Gradual Fall

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its August Short-Term Energy Outlook, which forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will remain elevated at around $85 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026.

This is due to continued restrictions on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which are expected to keep global oil inventories under pressure in the coming months. The EIA has raised its estimate of Middle East crude oil production disruptions compared with its July forecast.

As most crude oil production in the region returns to near pre-conflict levels in early 2027, Brent prices are forecast to fall to an average of $69 per barrel in 2027. However, disruptions of about 0.6 million barrels per day are expected to continue through the end of next year.

The EIA also expects US crude oil production to rise from 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026 to 14.2 million barrels per day in 2027. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are expected to remain relatively low, with the Henry Hub spot price forecast to average $2.87 per million British thermal units in the third quarter.