EIA Storage Report Expected to Show 23 Bcf Injection Amid Falling Rig and Frac Counts

Natural gas storage is likely to see an injection of 23 Bcf (billion cubic feet) in the latest US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report, NGI's price and data analysts project. This would be 7 Bcf higher week/week and 6 Bcf more than last year's injection.

The current 28 Bcf year/year deficit would shrink to 22 Bcf with this injection, while the surplus versus the previous five-year average would decrease to 175 Bcf.

According to data from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), cooling degree days across the continental US fell by 8.8% week/week to 83, which is still 15% higher than normal. This contributed to NGI's Weekly Henry Hub index climbing 6 cents higher to $2.830/MMBtu last week.

Despite a slight decrease in power burn from Lower 48 power generators last week, gas deliveries to power generators averaged 51.9 Bcf/d, down 0.6 Bcf/d week/week. Deliveries to LNG export facilities were also down marginally, slipping to 17.8 Bcf/d.

Net Lower 48 supply increased by a mere 0.1 Bcf/d last week, but the change in mix is the bigger story. Dry gas production climbed 0.5 Bcf/d to 112.4 Bcf/d, while net imports from Canada slipped 0.4 Bcf/d to 4.6 Bcf/d.

The recent upstream activity suggests domestic production may continue to crowd out Canadian imports. The US Baker Hughes and Enverus rig count fell by 5 to 588 last week, while the Primary Vision Lower 48 frac spread dropped a whopping 9 spreads to 184.