EIA Trims Oil Forecast Through 2027 Amid War-Driven Disruptions

The EIA has cut its oil forecast through 2027 due to constrained Hormuz transits and war-driven disruptions. The agency projects output will fall 4.3 million barrels per day this year, leaving supply 1.27 million barrels per day short of demand. Global stocks have fallen 410 million barrels since the war began, with Russian refinery runs near a 20-year low.

The EIA raised its estimate of shut-in Middle East production through August to 6.6 million barrels per day. The agency expects war-driven disruptions to average about 600,000 barrels per day through the end of 2027. Meanwhile, oil transiting Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in Q2, compared with 21.6 million in Q4 2025.

Ukraine's Defense Forces struck four Russian warships at Novorossiysk last night, including the frigates Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen. The Navy has reported a mental-health crisis aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, including multiple thwarted suicide attempts.