EIA Trims Oil Supply Forecast as Middle Eastern Disruptions Persist
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast for global oil supply in 2026 due to ongoing disruptions in Middle Eastern production. Approximately 5.5 million barrels per day of oil production was shut in during July, equivalent to over 5% of global oil consumption.
Despite expected recovery in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz from September onwards, the EIA expects around 600,000 bbl/d of regional production to remain offline through the end of 2027. This prolonged shutdown has led to a revised down forecast for global oil supply in 2026.
The agency now expects global oil production to average around 100.8 mmbbl/d this year, approximately 1% below its previous forecast. Meanwhile, global oil demand is projected to average around 104 mmbbl/d in 2026, unchanged from the previous outlook.