El Niño and Wars Collide: Global Food Prices Set for Sharp Increase

A perfect storm of global events is brewing, threatening to drive food prices even higher. The war in Ukraine and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to President Trump's conflict with Iran are already putting upward pressure on global food prices. According to Oxford Economics, these two factors will contribute to a 12% increase in global food prices by 2026 and a 5% increase by 2027.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely impacted fertilizer shipments, with Oxford Economics projecting a 22% surge in fertilizer prices this year. The war in Ukraine is also causing strain on grain supplies, as the two countries combined account for 30% of global wheat exports.

However, experts warn that these factors may be overshadowed by an even more significant threat: a super El Niño climate pattern. The Met Office has projected that this year's El Niño will be 'the largest since the 19th century', with sea temperatures expected to reach 3ºC above their long-term average.

Professor Adam Scaife of the Met Office described the projected increase in ocean temperatures as 'an unprecedented event'. Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical hazards at University College London, warned that this heat would manifest itself in several destructive ways over the next year, including drought and wildfire conditions, torrential rainfall and floods, and a reduced South Asian monsoon.