El Niño-Driven Volatility Hits Global Agricultural Markets

Global agricultural markets are experiencing heightened volatility due to lower grain production, adverse weather conditions, and Black Sea export disruptions. The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) reached a record high of 133.3 points in August 2026, with cereal prices rising by 2.2%.

US wheat exports are forecast to be nearly 15% below last year's levels, while US wheat production is expected to hit a historic low of 1,531 million bushels (mb), the lowest level since 1970/71.

The strengthening El Niño phenomenon adds further uncertainty to cereal production and global supply concerns in weather-sensitive regions. Globally, shocks related to El Niño could push an additional 49 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.