El Niño Threatens Ghana's Export Sector, Cocoa Yields at Risk

Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire's export sectors are under threat due to the expected peak in El Niño conditions during the October-December cocoa crop development period. Fitch Solutions warns that lower rainfall and higher temperatures could reduce yields, impacting export earnings, government revenues, and rural incomes.

The firm also highlights that strong El Niño conditions could disrupt crop cycles, leading to food inflation, straining hydropower output, and increasing social unrest risks. The report notes that rice imports account for a significant share of consumption in several markets, including Senegal (69%), Côte d'Ivoire (49%), and Ghana (47%).

Fitch Solutions warns that commodity-exporting economies would face additional risk through weaker prices, eroding export earnings, fiscal revenues, and foreign exchange inflows. The firm specifically mentions copper and gold exporters as being vulnerable to more hawkish US monetary policy.