El Niño Threatens Global Food System Amid Climate Change and Conflict

A strong El Niño event is expected to hit the world's food system, which is already strained by climate change, conflict, fuel costs, and fertilizer shortages.

The World Meteorological Organization predicts an 80% chance of an El Niño event beginning before August, rising to 90% by November. This could be a moderate to strong El Niño, adding to what's likely to be a year of record heat following the 11 warmest years on record.

El Niño can worsen heat and drought in some places, raise the risk of severe flooding in others, and push food prices higher. The ongoing US-Iran conflict has also raised concerns about fuel, fertilizer, shipping, and food availability.

A strong El Niño could increase global food commodity prices by up to 9%, according to a 2023 European Central Bank analysis. Soybeans, corn, and rice are at the greatest risk for cost increases. Low-income families may struggle with even small price increases, potentially forcing them to buy less nutritious food.