El Nino Threatens Latin America's Food Exports Amid Disruptions to Trade and Energy
Latin America is bracing for a powerful El Nino event that could disrupt food production, energy supplies, and trade across one of the world's most important food-exporting regions. Researchers expect the weather phenomenon to strengthen from September, potentially reaching or exceeding the intensity of the 2015-16 El Nino, which remains the strongest in modern records.
In Latin America, the effects of El Nino vary by location, with southern parts receiving more rain and northern areas facing higher drought risks. The impact on food exports could be significant, as Latin America supplies major global markets with soybeans, corn, wheat, and other agricultural products. While extra water in some areas may support crop production, excessive rain, floods, disease, and damaged transport links could reduce the benefits.
Argentina's fertile Pampas region could see better soil moisture for planting, improving conditions for soybeans, corn, and wheat during the summer season. However, more rain can increase fungal diseases, wash nutrients out of fertilised fields, and delay planting. Flooded fields can also make it difficult for farmers to reach their farms, while muddy roads can create another problem by delaying activities such as applying fertilisers and chemicals.
The impact will not be limited to the southern agricultural belt, with Peru's northern coast facing flooding and its highlands experiencing water shortages. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization expects similar patterns in Chile and other parts of the Pacific coast. Warmer ocean temperatures could also hurt the fishing sector, reducing catches and putting pressure on fishing industries.
The effects of El Nino could extend well beyond farms, reshaping energy supply, river transport, and international trade across the region. Argentina may benefit from changing energy demand, while southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina face the opposite situation, with higher rainfall potentially increasing water levels in the Parana River and improving hydroelectric dam usage.
Northern Brazil faces a particular concern due to its vast river network, which provides an important transport route for agricultural commodities. Drier conditions could reduce water levels in rivers, making it harder to move large volumes of goods, and increase transport costs and delays for exporters. The Panama Canal Authority has already tightened restrictions on shipload weights to conserve water, reducing maximum vessel drafts and increasing competition for passage.