El Nino to Persist Through Feb 2027, WMO Warns
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific are likely to persist through February 2027, causing significant impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns. This could lead to an increase in floods, droughts, and extreme heat, affecting communities and economies worldwide.
According to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, El Nino has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. The organization's projections come just days after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast that El Nino conditions could persist till February next year.
El Nino is one of the three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon characterized by changes in sea temperatures along the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The prevailing El Nino conditions have already led to less rainfall in India, with the IMD confirming that the overall rainfall in August was deficient due to these conditions.
Furthermore, September is expected to see below-average rainfall, with the IMD forecasting only 91% of the long period average (LPA). The LPA for September is about 167.9 mm based on data between 1971 and 2020. An intensifying El Nino could also lead to higher temperatures during the winter season, exacerbating the situation as India witnesses warmer winters.
According to a recent study by Climate Trends, a Delhi-based climate think tank, winters in northern India are shortening, with February-March warming becoming common. This is increasing the risk of terminal heat stress on Rabi crops like wheat, particularly during their reproductive and grain filling stages.