El Niño, Wars Spark Food Price Crisis

Global food prices are expected to rise significantly over the next two years due to a combination of factors, including wars in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine. A study by Oxford Economics projects that food prices will increase by 12% in 2026 and 5% in 2027. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, caused by President Trump's war with Iran, has cut off a major shipping lane for fertilizer, leading to a projected price surge of 22% this year.

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also putting pressure on grain supplies, as the two countries combined account for 30% of global wheat exports. Furthermore, the El Niño climate pattern is expected to be particularly severe this year, with sea temperatures reaching 3°C above their long-term average in the coming months.

According to Professor Adam Scaife of the Met Office, the projected increase in ocean temperatures is 'an unprecedented event.' Bill McGuire, professor emeritus at University College London, warns that El Niño will bring drought and wildfire conditions to certain regions, as well as torrential rainfall and floods to others.

Trade and agriculture analyst Noel Fryer notes that North America and Europe have already experienced hot summers this year, which has decimated some crops and reduced grazing prospects.