El Niño Worries Fuel Sixth Straight Month of Rising Cocoa Prices

Cocoa prices have been on a steady rise for six months now, driven by concerns over El Niño and geopolitical risks. The increase comes amid broader gains across agricultural commodities, with wheat, corn, and soybeans also experiencing significant price hikes.

The war in the Middle East has pushed up energy costs, while record temperatures and climate-related problems are affecting harvests worldwide. This is particularly true for cocoa-producing countries in West Africa, where drought concerns have eased but harvests are still under pressure.

Analysts at Intesa Sanpaolo and Rabobank warn that supply disruptions in West Africa could worsen in the coming months, with El Niño intensifying the annual Harmattan winds that threaten cocoa trees. This has led to a reevaluation of global surplus forecasts for 2026-27, with some analysts predicting a possible shift back into deficit due to strengthening demand.

Cocoa prices have staged a sharp recovery this year after plummeting 48.1% in 2025, their steepest annual decline. Prices rose 14.3% in March, 8.2% in April, and 29.4% in June, before increasing by 6.3% and 25.5% in July and August respectively.