Emerging Forces to Boost Electric Vehicles Amid Global Oil Shocks
A trio of emerging economic forces could boost global production of electric vehicles (EVs), according to a report from Wood Mackenzie. The forces are oil supply shocks from wars in petroleum-producing countries Russia and Iran, high fuel prices prompting consumers to switch to EVs, and technological innovation.
China is making rapid progress on battery technologies, including 5-minute charging and both sodium-ion batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. Western countries could use government support to boost innovation, the report said.
Policymakers around the world may find that increased licensing of Chinese EV technology is needed to boost resilience to oil prices as well as ramping up domestic supply chains.
Global oil demand could fall to 99 million barrels per day in 2040, from above 100 million bpd today. Abundant oil supplies in the U.S. keep its EV market share rising from 3% today to only 20% by 2040, WoodMac forecast.
In Europe, which has high oil import dependence, EV market share should rise from 3% in 2025 to 35% by 2040. The world needs another $45 billion in investment in metals over the next decade to support 50% growth in global EVs.