EU Can Break LNG Dependence with Renewable Energy, But Risks New Geopolitical Ties

A new report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) suggests that the European Union can reduce its dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) by accelerating the adoption of renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar power, and heat pumps. According to the study, expanding these technologies could displace 8.8 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2024, equivalent to two-thirds of the EU's imports from Qatar that year.

The IEEFA estimates that if the EU meets its existing deployment targets over the next five years, gas demand could fall by around 25 percent by 2030, saving twice the volume of LNG Europe could potentially import from Qatar. The report argues that while the EU has successfully reduced its dependence on Russian pipeline gas, it has replaced one vulnerability with another by increasing imports of LNG.

However, the study also warns that the EU risks becoming reliant on Chinese manufacturing and supply chains for clean energy technologies, as China's firms have a dominant position in global manufacturing. The report notes that recent technological and geo-economic developments have strengthened China's rise as the world's first 'electrostate', where its influence stems from controlling the technologies needed for electrification.