EU Ditches Russian Gas by 2027, Africa Steps in as Replacement

Europe has agreed to cancel long-term contracts for Russian gas by 2027, marking a significant shift in energy policy. The European Union member states will no longer be able to sign new long-term LNG contracts with Russian suppliers from January 2027, while pipeline gas contracts will end by September or November of that year.

Africa is emerging as a key replacement supplier due to its proximity and existing production capacity. Gross natural gas output across the continent reached around 331 billion cubic meters in 2025, led by Algeria, Nigeria, and Egypt. The region's LNG exports are expected to rise by close to 175% to 98 billion cubic meters per year by 2034.

The growth in Sub-Saharan supply is particularly notable, with new projects such as the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim facility in Mauritania and Senegal coming online. Meanwhile, existing capacity from Africa will become more attractive due to oversupply in the market, with roughly 93 million tonnes per year of new liquefaction capacity entering the market across 2025 and 2026.