EU Faces Black Sea Dilemma as Ukraine-Russia Conflict Escalates
The European Union is facing a dilemma in the Black Sea as tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalate. The conflict has led to disruptions in grain exports, which could lead to a global food crisis similar to the one in 2022.
The EU has been trying to avoid another diplomatic charm offensive to explain that Western sanctions are not responsible for rising food prices. However, with Ukraine and Russia trading blows in the Black Sea, including attacks on each other's vessels, the situation is becoming increasingly tense.
The latest escalation began with Russia stepping up attacks on Ukrainian ships, but Kyiv has since retaliated using drones that can reach targets across much of Russia's Black Sea coast. One notable example was when Ukraine successfully attacked Russia's largest deep-sea commercial hub at Novorossiisk in August, from which Russia had been shipping 70% of its grain exports.
The hostilities have already had a tangible impact on the global wheat market. In August last year, Russia and Ukraine exported a combined 6.3 million tons of wheat through the Black Sea. However, this August, that figure fell to 2.5 million tons, leading to a 25% increase in grain prices compared to the start of the year.