EU Wheat Export Forecast Rises Amid Black Sea Shipments Decline
The European Union's wheat export forecast for the 2026/27 season has been raised to 29.5 million tons by Expana, a significant increase from the previous estimate of 28.7 million tons in August. This upward revision is attributed to reduced grain shipments from the Black Sea region, which has prompted importers to seek alternative suppliers.
Expana's analysts link the improved outlook for European exports to lower exports from Ukraine and Russia, generating additional demand for EU wheat and barley on the global market. However, large harvests in North Africa and the Middle East have partially limited overall import demand.
The EU soft wheat production forecast for 2026/27 has been reduced by 0.7 million tons to 126.1 million tons, which is 10.5 million tons below the previous season. The revision mainly reflects disappointing results in Germany, while harvests in the Baltic countries have been more favorable.
The outlook for corn is considerably weaker, with Expana cutting its EU production forecast from 49.1 million to 46.2 million tons, a decline of 18.9% from 2025/26. If confirmed, this would be the EU's smallest corn crop since 1992.