Euro and Aussie Test Key Support, Gold Breaks Below Uptrend
The EUR/USD is currently testing confluent uptrend support early in the week after rebounding off key support at 1.1534/78. This zone is defined by the 38.2% retracement of the June advance and the May/January swing lows.
A break below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant near-term high is in place, and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support objectives rest with the August open at 1.1535 and the 61.8% retracement at 1.1472.
On the other hand, initial resistance is eyed at the 38.2% retracement of the recent decline which converges on the 200-day & 52-week moving averages and the 25% parallel of the upslope near 1.1630/31. A breach / daily close above this threshold would threaten trend resumption with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 61.8% retracement at 1.1661 and the 50% retracement of the yearly range near 1.1704.
The AUD/USD marked an outside daily-reversal off confluent resistance on Friday at 7208/14, a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 decline and the 100% extension of the 2025 advance. The Aussie is trading just above support into the monthly close, with the late-July uptrend median converging on Friday’s low near 7155.
The gold price broke below the August uptrend after Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole World Economic Symposium, extending more than 6.3% off the monthly high. Key support now rests with the objective yearly open and the 50% retracement at 4319/20.