European Wheat Prices Rise by 18% Amid Shipping Risks in Black Sea

The European wheat market has seen an 18% price increase due to shipping risks in the Black Sea region. According to the Romanian agricultural portal agrointelegența, the harvest in the region's countries is proceeding at a steady pace, with Ukraine alone having harvested approximately 11-12 million metric tons of wheat by the end of this workweek, accounting for 35-40% of the country's projected wheat production. Preliminary laboratory analyses indicate that 65-70% of the harvest will consist of food-grade wheat.

Market participants are no longer focused solely on the size of the harvest, but also on the ability to efficiently transport goods to export markets. However, due to ongoing attacks on port infrastructure in the Black Sea region, even optimistic forecasts indicate that the effective export throughput capacity of ports in the eastern Black Sea region could be reduced by about one-third at the height of the harvest season.

Logistics flows are being urgently rerouted toward the Danube Corridor and the Romanian port of Constanta. Yuriy Rizha, an expert in agromarketing, comments that 'from a commercial standpoint, market participants are no longer focused solely on the size of the harvest, but also on the ability to efficiently transport goods to export markets.'

Prices for feed wheat range from $215-217/metric ton, and for food-grade wheat from $226-228/metric ton (Grade III) to $229-230/metric ton (Grade II), reflecting high demand from processors and international traders driven by rising logistics costs. The tariff for river transport between Reni, Izmail, and Constanta has risen from approximately $14-15/metric ton to approximately $28/metric ton in just two weeks.