FAO Warns of Second Wave of Global Food Inflation

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is warning of another wave of global food inflation by late 2026. FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero notes that conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine, a strengthening El Niño, higher oil prices, and tightening supplies of key agricultural inputs are creating conditions for rising production costs.

Higher crude oil prices increase the cost of pumping, transportation, processing, and packaging, while rising natural gas prices directly affect fertilizer production. Diesel shortages in some regions and supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions continue to pressure agricultural production costs worldwide.

Torero warns that commodity price increases typically take three to six months to filter through the food supply chain, suggesting that consumers could begin seeing stronger food inflation by the end of this year, with additional increases likely throughout 2027. The FAO believes that the combination of geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather, and rising production costs represents one of the most significant threats to global food security since the inflation surge of 2022.