FCX Stock Rallies on Copper Surge, but Reaching $100 Remains Elusive

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) shares have surged 44% in 2026, nearing the halfway mark towards a triple-digit price tag. However, reaching $100 will require specific conditions that are largely outside the company's control.

Copper's rally has turned the sector's largest producers into nearly identical trades, with year-to-date returns clustered within a tight band. This is indicative of a commodity move rather than company execution. Freeport-McMoRan shares closed at $72.73 on Friday, while Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO) finished the week at $198.76 and Teck Resources (NYSE:TECK) ended at $69.10.

The Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:COPX) has climbed 27% year-to-date, lagging behind the three majors due to its developer and small-miner holdings not keeping pace. In contrast, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 13%, giving copper trio a significant lead on the broader market.

The tight clustering among Freeport-McMoRan, Southern Copper, and Teck Resources reflects a commodity-driven tape, with LME copper averaging $5.93 per pound year-to-date through June and closing at $6.30 per pound on July 22. The U.S. COMEX benchmark traded at a 2% premium to LME pricing, adding to Freeport-McMoRan's revenue mix given its Arizona and New Mexico footprint.

Freeport-McMoRan's own sensitivity math is telling, with management modeling annual EBITDA at roughly $13 billion at $5 copper and $20 billion at $7 copper. Each 10-cent move in the copper price is worth $390 million in EBITDA, highlighting the importance of the commodity price in reaching $100.

The Freeport-McMoRan story split in half this year, with a September 2025 Grasberg mud rush constraining Indonesian output and revising 2026 copper sales guidance down to 3.1 billion pounds from 3.4 billion. However, the July quarter reset the narrative, with Block Cave production doubling during Q2 and management guiding the district to 65% of full capacity in the second half of 2026.

To reach $100, Freeport-McMoRan stock will likely require copper closer to the $7 case, a smoother Grasberg ramp, and continued discipline on unit costs. The company's $5 billion buyback with $2.9 billion remaining as of April 22, 2026, and its leach program targeting 300 million incremental pounds in 2026 are internal levers that could contribute to the push higher.