Fitch Affirms Qatar at AA Amid War Uncertainty

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Qatar's sovereign rating at AA, removing it from Rating Watch Negative. The credit agency cites reduced risk to LNG facilities since the March attack on Ras Laffan as a reason for the upgrade.

The outlook remains negative due to uncertainty over the war's impact on Qatar's credit profile. Fitch assumes that Qatar's economy will contract by 18.8% in 2026, but rebound next year as LNG exports resume and North Field expansion ramps up production from 2027.

This forecast hinges on a US-Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz to exports by 1Q 2027, allowing for roughly six months to reach pre-war volumes. However, this is a diplomatic assumption, which is why Fitch's outlook remains negative.