Fitch Predicts Brent Crude Price Plunge to $70 by Q4 2026

Fitch Ratings has updated its oil price forecast through 2026, predicting a significant drop in prices due to oversupply conditions. The agency expects Brent crude to average $87 per barrel for the full year but settle around $70 per barrel from September onward.

The Strait of Hormuz, which handles a fifth of the world's oil supply, is expected to reopen at the end of July 2026. Fitch's base case assumes this will happen, leading to a price drop to around $80 per barrel in August as the market digests the return of supply.

However, if the Strait doesn't reopen on schedule or geopolitical tensions escalate further, prices could remain elevated well above the average. Fitch Managing Director Angelina Valavina described the risk profile as 'binary,' with a skew towards the downside.

This forecast has implications for energy-intensive proof-of-work mining operations, such as those used in Bitcoin mining. Lower energy costs can improve margins and reduce selling pressure on miners, potentially benefiting the cryptocurrency market.