Flexibility Trumps Ownership in Middle East Energy Landscape
The Middle East's energy landscape is undergoing a significant shift, where flexibility and adaptability are becoming increasingly important. The region's energy arteries are under growing pressure due to attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, threats around the Strait of Hormuz, and other disruptions.
A country's ability to redirect flows, reach alternative markets, and adapt its energy systems quickly is now seen as a key factor in determining its power and influence. This shift challenges the traditional measures of influence, which were based primarily on reserves, production, and export capacity.
The US Energy Information Administration estimated that Saudi and Emirati pipelines had about 2.6 million barrels per day of unused capacity in 2025 that could bypass Hormuz during a disruption. This capacity is not just about moving oil but also about creating room to maneuver. Egypt's Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline provide another connection between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, weakening the grip of a single point of failure.
The ability to build such safeguards is profoundly unequal, with wealthier states able to finance parallel routes, terminals, storage, and cables, while conflict-affected societies often struggle to keep one system functioning. The distribution of this resilience is not only unequal but also politically consequential, as the same infrastructure that protects one state's exports can leave another society more vulnerable to deprivation.