Freeport-McMoRan Stock Surges on Mine Rebuild
Freeport-McMoRan's stock price surged by about 74% from August 2025 to August 2026, outperforming the S&P 500's 20% gain. A significant contributor to this rise was the company's efforts to rebuild its US mines. By late January 2025, management had set a target for 2024 as the base year for US operations, with an 8% increase in production expected in 2025.
The rebuilding process began to show results by April 2025, when contractor hours at Morenci, its largest mine, decreased by about 20% over the prior few quarters. The autonomous haul truck conversion at Bagdad mine was also underway. In fiscal Q2 2026, Morenci's mining rate increased by 30% compared to its five-year average.
The copper tariff premium, which had initially contributed to the stock price rise, began to fade in July 2025. The US announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, but this move did not have the expected impact. By July 2026, the company reported that the US premium was back at roughly 2% above the LME price.
The rebuild of US mines and the higher realized copper prices both contributed to Freeport-McMoRan's strong performance in 2025-2026. However, reading only one correctly would not have been enough; owning a rules-based group of quality businesses can help mitigate such risks.