Gas Shortage Hampers Trinidad and Tobago's Economic Prospects
The energy sector is crucial to Trinidad and Tobago's economic fortunes in the short run. The closure of Train 1 has left Atlantic LNG plants operating at a nameplate capacity of 11.5 million metric tons per year, requiring a daily natural gas supply of between 1.6 and 1.9 billion cubic feet (bcf). However, domestic natural gas production averaged only 2.4 Bcf for the first three months of 2026, leaving plants in Pt Lisas closed due to insufficient gas supply.
The strategic problem is not a lack of plant infrastructure but rather a shortage of gas supply. The Manatee project, additional production from new wells, and Venezuelan gas are crucial to resolving this issue. However, there is a long lead time between exploration, discovery, and production, which means that it will take time for the Manatee project to ramp up its production to approximately 600 mcf/d.
The major gas producers, Shell and BP, prioritize supplying Atlantic LNG over the downstream petrochemical sector. This means that NGC can only supply gas to the downstream sector in accordance with the natural gas it is contracted to buy from Shell and BP. The control of the upstreamers, BP and Shell, complicates any potential benefits from Venezuelan gas.
The Finance Minister's position is compromised by a revenue-expenditure gap that cannot be easily bridged. He has attempted to plug this gap by drawing down from the Heritage and Stabilization Fund (HSF) and borrowing. This will lead to an increase in Trinidad and Tobago's national debt, which now stands at 89% of GDP.