Geopolitical Risks Fail to Lift Natural Gas Prices Amid Abundant Supply
Natural gas prices have been under pressure in recent months despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The prices have retreated after a sharp rally at the end of January, driven by colder weather and concerns over supply tightness. NYMEX natural gas is currently hovering near $2.68 per MMBtu, while MCX natural gas prices have fallen below ₹260 per MMBtu.
The primary reason behind the recent decline in natural gas prices is abundant supply. The United States continues to produce natural gas at near-record levels from major shale basins, while new LNG export projects in the U.S., Qatar, and other producing nations have significantly increased global availability.
Global LNG supply growth in 2026 is expected to be the strongest since 2019, according to the International Energy Agency. This has eased concerns about shortages and reduced fears of supply disruptions.