Geopolitics, Tariffs, and Supply Disruptions Drive Metal Prices Higher
Copper prices reached a record $14,527 per metric ton in mid-2026 due to Middle East tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted the supply of sulfur and sulfuric acid essential for copper processing.
The market remains sensitive to geopolitical tensions, industrial demand, and shifts in government policy. According to Gregory Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at JPMorgan, the medium-term environment remains supportive for copper despite elevated levels.
Copper's rally over the past six months has been driven by tariff uncertainty, creating a tug-of-war between the US and China for copper units. The global refined copper market is relatively well supplied, but China faces greater competition as metal flows into the United States, effectively raising the minimum price China must pay to secure supplies.
The aluminum market is facing a substantial deficit this year that could persist for an extended period. Aluminum prices are forecast to reach $3,800 per metric ton in the third quarter of 2026 before easing to $3,700 in the fourth quarter and gradually declining to $2,750 by the fourth quarter of 2027.
The global steel benchmark currently stands at around $1,186 per metric ton based on hot-rolled coil prices. Steel producers successfully pushed for materials used in steel production to be exempted from Section 301 tariffs, which could help keep costs relatively stable and prevent sharp price increases.