Global Copper Price Surge Sparks Warning of Market Disruption
The global copper market is facing unprecedented challenges due to a mismatch between mining and smelting capacity, driving prices to record highs. According to the Indian Primary Copper Producers Association (IPCPA), copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have reached USD 14,737 per tonne in September 2026, marking an increase of nearly 50% over the past year.
The IPCPA attributes this surge to several factors, including US tariff expectations and tightening mine supply. The association notes that hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper have been shipped to the United States to capitalize on the premium between Comex and LME prices, leading to a concentration of copper stocks in the country.
Additionally, China's expansion of smelting capacity has put pressure on global copper concentrates, causing Treatment and Refining Charges (TC/RCs) to plummet to historically unprecedented levels of around negative USD 1,300 per tonne. This development is placing severe financial stress on smelters and highlighting the widening mismatch between mining capacity and global smelting and refining capacity.
The IPCPA emphasizes that these structural challenges underscore the strategic role of copper in industrial growth, electrification, and the global energy transition.