Global Critical Mineral Demand Set to Surge Through 2040, Supply Gaps Persist

Global demand for critical minerals is set to surge through 2040, driven by growth in electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable energy, and electricity networks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a significant increase in demand for key minerals such as copper, lithium, and nickel.

Copper demand is expected to grow by more than 25% by 2040, adding around 7 million tonnes. Lithium demand is projected to triple by 2040, while graphite demand is set to double. Nickel demand is expected to increase by 65%, and rare earth demand will rise by around 50%.

The IEA warns that supply gaps for copper and lithium could persist through 2035. A gap also emerges for cobalt due to export quotas in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. China dominates refining and downstream processing, creating bottlenecks even as new mining capacity comes online.