Global Economic Disruptions Threaten Madagascar's Energy and Food Security

The global economy is facing significant disruptions due to conflicts and blockages of strategic straits, such as the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a shortage of oil and gas supplies, with over 20 million barrels of oil passing through the strait every day.

Madagascar is particularly vulnerable to these disruptions, relying on imports from Oman for 99% of its oil needs. The country has faced shortages and strikes by transport operators, leading the government to declare a state of energy emergency in April 2026.

The government may intervene directly in the supply and distribution of petroleum products, prioritizing essential uses such as public services. This would come at a significant cost, with potential higher public deficits and a $183 million shortfall in revenue from the International Monetary Fund.

Madagascar's dependence on maritime trade is deepening its economic vulnerabilities, particularly in agriculture. The country employs over 80% of its population in this sector, which is threatened by rising fertiliser costs due to natural gas price increases.