Global Energy Choke Points Under Siege as Conflicts Escalate

The world's most critical maritime energy arteries are under intense pressure due to military actions, proxy threats, and environmental stresses. The Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Suez Canal, and Caspian Sea region have become flashpoints, disrupting flows of oil, LNG, fertilizers, and other commodities.

The Caspian Sea is a vital enclosed basin for oil and gas exports from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Russia, and Iran. Recent Ukrainian long-range strikes have targeted vessels in the Caspian Sea carrying military cargo linked to Iran-Russia transfers.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important oil transit point, carrying approximately 20.9 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products in the first half of 2025. Conflict-related disruptions in 2026 have been severe, with flows falling nearly 30% year-over-year to about 14.6 million b/d.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal/SUMED pipeline system form the key Europe-Asia link, but recent Houthi actions have further reduced traffic. Iran's IRGC has issued direct warnings, threatening that Ukraine lies within range of IRGC missiles and that attacks on Russian ships would not go unanswered.