Global Food Shocks Intensify Amid Ongoing Conflicts
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and US-Israel conflict with Iran are causing global food and fuel shocks, particularly for the Global South including India.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has entered its fifth year, with both sides attacking each other's grain ports and vessels. This threatens a food crisis as these countries are major exporters of wheat, barley, and sunflower oil. The UN-sponsored Black Sea grain initiative allowed for free passage of ships transporting grain last year but collapsed in July 2023.
Russia has rejected the idea of a Black Sea truce, citing 'half measures' that would not benefit them. This will lead to higher wheat prices as Russia and Ukraine have a combined share of 27.4% in global wheat exports.
The US is also experiencing drought conditions, which will impact hard red winter wheat output. France's wheat production may decline due to wildfires and record heat. Australia's wheat output has decreased due to dry conditions and rising fertiliser costs.
According to the World Food Programme, 247 million people in vulnerable nations could become acutely food-insecure by end-2027 if the current trends continue.