Global Food Supply Under Pressure Amid Reduced Harvests
The global food supply is facing pressure due to reduced harvests across Europe and the US. According to the latest data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), total world production is estimated to be down 2.2% this year, with stocks reduced by 4.4%. Stocks are now equivalent to 95 days usage, a decrease of four days from last year.
The poor harvest has been particularly severe in Europe and the UK, where wheat output is estimated to be down 6%, coarse grain production down 10% or more, and rape-meal down by 21.2mt. Russia's wheat harvest is expected to increase to 90mt, but Ukrainian grain exports have dropped by 76% due to conflict disruption.
Other regions are also facing challenges, with the Canadian harvest expected to drop by 13%, the UK milk production down 2.5%, and Indian wheat production reduced to 113.5mt. The drought in Southern Plains of the US has led to a significant decrease in wheat production, pushing prices up on the Chicago exchange to $248/t.
Despite these challenges, economists are predicting that commodity prices will rise in the coming months, leading to higher food prices by the end of the year. The world currently has around 11 months of food in store, but regional differences exist, with Africa holding around four months and Oceana holding 32 months.
The author argues that governments need to prioritize supporting farmers to grow as much food as possible, while also recognizing the importance of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. The goal of Net Zero by 2030 is seen as unrealistic, and moderation in policy-making is advocated for.