Global Oil Market Plunges Amid Ongoing Conflicts

The global oil market is experiencing significant turmoil due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. The war between Russia and Ukraine has had a particularly detrimental impact on upstream operations, causing production levels to drop significantly.

According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), global crude and condensate production reached a record high of 85.410 MMbpd in 2025. However, just three months later, production had dropped to 76.308 MMbopd due to the Iranian situation.

The industry set another new record for crude and condensate production at 86.729 MMbpd in February, only to see output slide to 75.281 MMbopd in April. The last month with definitive data from EIA showed a continued decline in production.

Industry executives are being indecisive about planning projects and whether to increase spending due to the uncertainty caused by these conflicts. Our forecast shows little movement, up or down, in either international or U.S drilling.