Global Oil Supplies Strained as Wars Disrupt Over 43% of World's Crude

Global oil supplies are facing unprecedented disruptions as more than 43% of the world's oil now comes from countries affected by wars, attacks, and export curbs. According to Reuters calculations based on IEA data, countries hit by these disruptions produced about 45 million barrels of oil a day in 2025.

The Russia-Ukraine war has significantly contributed to the global oil supply crisis, with US restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports at the start of the year adding to the pressure. Libya's ongoing conflict and attacks on Iranian oil facilities have also led to a shortage of crude oil, making the world more dependent on US oil supplies.

The Gulf oil disruption is estimated at around 5 million to 7 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia re-routing oil to the Red Sea and Gulf exporters secretly moving oil out through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the risk to overall flows remains elevated due to attacks in key routes.