Global Oil Supply Plunges Amid War-Driven Disruptions
The world's oil supply is facing its largest crisis on record, six months into the war between the US and Israel. The conflict has disrupted oil production in several countries, including Iran, Libya, and Venezuela, accounting for over 43% of global supply.
According to Reuters calculations using International Energy Agency data, these countries produced about 45 million barrels per day of oil based on 2025 output. This is a significant increase from previous energy crises, highlighting the world's reliance on US oil supplies.
The Russia-Ukraine war has also forced production and refining cuts in Ukraine and nearby Kazakhstan this year. The conflict in Libya and US restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports have added further strain to global oil supply.
Risks to total flows remain high, with attacks in the Red Sea and near Egypt's Suez Canal demonstrating ongoing instability. Global refining capacity has been cut by about a tenth due to the conflicts in the Gulf and Ukraine.