Global Wheat Market Faces Uncertainty as Argentina's Output Falls and Ukraine Conflict Continues

Argentina's wheat production is expected to decline by 23% in the 2026-27 marketing year, following a record harvest last season. The country's wheat output for this period is now projected at 21.6 million tonnes, down from 28 million tonnes last year.

The reduced crop will be partly offset by higher planted area and favorable late-season weather conditions, which have led to an increase in harvested wheat area to 6.6 million hectares.

Despite the lower production, Argentina's wheat exports are expected to remain substantial at 15.5 million tonnes, although they will be well below last year's record export volumes.

The global wheat market is facing renewed uncertainty due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has disrupted Black Sea grain exports and tightened global availability. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has already projected that US wheat production this year could be the lowest since 1970.