Global Wheat Production Forecast Slumps by 11% Amid Drought Conditions

The global wheat market is bracing for a significant decline in production and exports next year due to drought conditions across major exporting countries. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected that combined wheat production among the world's seven largest exporters will fall by 11% in the 2026/27 marketing year, while exports are expected to decrease by 7% from the previous season.

The sharpest decline is expected in North America, with US wheat production forecasted to drop by 26%, and exports down nearly 15%. This is primarily due to persistent drought across the Southern Plains, which has significantly reduced hard red winter wheat output. In Canada, wheat production is projected to decrease by 15%, while exports are expected to decline by 8% due to reduced planted area and high fertilizer costs.

The European Union is also experiencing hot and dry weather, resulting in reduced wheat and corn yields. Meanwhile, crop prospects in Ukraine and Russia remain relatively favorable, but exports from the Black Sea region are increasingly constrained by escalating security risks and disruptions to maritime shipping.