Gold Breaks Out of Congestion, Bulls Eye Larger Recovery
The gold market has broken above a multi-week congestion pattern, indicating potential growth after months of decline.
This development is significant, as it suggests that the price may be shifting from a downtrend to an uptrend. The recent employment report showed weaker-than-expected hiring, reducing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September and supporting gold's advance.
The 20-week simple moving average (SMA) has been trending lower since gold peaked in early 2026, representing a significant technical barrier to higher prices. If the market can overcome this resistance, it could indicate a larger recovery for gold.
MRCI research suggests that gold often experiences a basing pattern in July followed by a significant up move, which could be happening again this year. Historically, December gold futures have seen 12 winning years out of 15 with an 80% occurrence rate.