Gold Could Hit $5,600 as Silver Tops $100 by Year-End: Report Predicts Bull Case

A new report from Monarch PMS has outlined three possible scenarios for gold and silver prices by year-end, each with varying probabilities.

In a bull case, which is assigned a 25 per cent probability, gold could reach $5,000-$5,600 per ounce and silver $95-$120 per ounce. This scenario assumes weakness in the labour market, forcing the Fed to ease repo rates and real yields roll over.

The report also stated that institutional reallocation into precious metals must resume and physical tightness in silver should return for the bull case to materialise.

In contrast, a base case with a 55 per cent probability sees gold trading at $4,300-$4,700 per ounce and silver at $70-$85 per ounce by year-end. This scenario assumes the US Federal Reserve holds rates through September, energy prices normalise, real yields plateau, and central banks maintain purchases of around 250 tonnes a quarter.

A bear case with a 20 per cent probability sees gold at $3,400-$3,900 per ounce and silver at $45-$55 per ounce if the Fed delivers a rate hike in September, oil falls further, and disinflation turns into demand weakness.