Gold Could Hit $5,600, Silver $120 by Year-End: Report Predicts Bull Case Scenario

A new report from Monarch PMS has predicted that gold could reach $5,000-$5,600 per ounce and silver $95-$120 per ounce by year-end in a bull case. This scenario is assigned a 25% probability and assumes weakness in the labour market, forcing the Fed to ease repo rates.

The report also forecasts that gold will trade in the range of $4,300-$4,700 per ounce and silver at $70-$85 per ounce by end-2026 in a base case, with a 55% probability. In this scenario, the US Federal Reserve holds rates through September, energy prices normalise, real yields plateau, and central banks maintain purchases of around 250 tonnes a quarter.

The bear case, with a 20% probability, sees gold at $3,400-$3,900 per ounce and silver at $45-$55 per ounce if the Fed delivers a rate hike in September. This scenario assumes oil falls further and disinflation turns into demand weakness.