Gold Defies Hawkish Repricing with 1.7% Rally

Gold and silver prices rose on September 11, 2026, despite hotter-than-forecast inflation data and increased odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a 0.4% monthly increase in headline CPI and a 3.4% annual rise, but core CPI cooled to 2.4%, down from July's 2.5%. This divergence in inflation readings left markets puzzled.

The odds of a quarter-point rate hike next week rose to about 90%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, following the CPI report. Higher rate hike odds typically hurt gold prices due to its lack of yield. However, spot gold traded near $4,389 an ounce, up around 1.7% on the day, while spot silver traded near $64.98, up over 2%.

Analysts pointed to a weak dollar as one reason for gold's resilience, noting that the Dollar Index barely moved despite the hawkish repricing. Additionally, CFTC data showed gold's net speculative long position was the second-highest in the last eight weekly readings, indicating fewer forced sellers to push prices down on bad news.

While some market participants saw today's CPI report as a sign of inflation still above target and a justification for further rate hikes, others interpreted it as a mixed signal that could lead to a more dovish Fed decision next week. The actual outcome remains uncertain until the Federal Open Market Committee meets on September 15-16, 2026.