Gold Fails at $4,500 as September Rate Hike Odds Plummet
Gold has been struggling to break through the $4,500 barrier, but analysts say that this is not just a matter of price action. The metal's inability to clear this level is due to real supply behind it, and until it clears, every rally into $4,450 gets sold by holders who bought higher and are still working out of positions.
The month has been strong for gold, with prices gaining over 10% across the past 30 days, roughly 33% year-over-year, and about 4% on the week. However, despite this gain, the metal is still trading below its all-time high of $5,595 from January 29.
The collapse in September tightening probability has also had an impact on gold prices. The CME FedWatch now prices a 30.6% chance that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates next month, down from 50% just last month.